A world of chance : betting on religion, games, Wall Street

Although financial markets often try to distance themselves from gambling, the two factors have far more in common than usually thought. When, historically, there were no financial institutions such as banks, lotteries constituted the ways by which expensive items were disposed of, and governments raised money quickly. Gambling tables fulfilled roles that venture capital and banking do today. 'Gamblers' created clearinghouses and sustained liquidity. When those gamblers bet on price distributions in futures markets, they were redefined as 'speculators'. Today they are called 'hedge fund managers' or 'bankers'. Though the names have changed, the actions undertaken have essentially stayed the same. This book shows how discussion on 'chance', 'risk', 'gambling', 'insurance', and 'speculation' illuminates where societies stood, where we are today, and where we may be heading.

Reuven Brenner and Gabrielle A. BrennerReuven Brenner and Gabrielle A. BrennerReuven Brenner and Gabrielle A. BrennerReuven BrennerReuven Brenner and Aaron BrownReuven Brenner and Gabrielle A. BrennerReuven BrennerAaron BrownReuven Brenner and Gabrielle A. BrennerReuven BrennerReuven BrennerReuven Brenner and Gabrielle A. Brenner and Claude Montmarquette

Preface	p. xiii
Acknowledgments	p. xvii
1 From Religion to Risk Management: What to Do When Facing Uncertainty?	p. 1
Origins of Lasting Prejudice	p. 3
Volatile Beliefs	p. 5
From Religion to Risk, from Lots to Betting	p. 6
Chance and Providence: Upstairs, Downstairs	p. 13
Conclusion	p. 15
2 Anything Wrong with Gambling as a Pastime?	p. 17
Which shows how false ideas about risk, gambling, and pastimes gain currency.
What Did Gambling Have to Do with Military Readiness?	p. 18
Prohibitions on New Ways of Having Fun	p. 20
English Prohibitions on Poor People's Pastimes	p. 21
If Not Cockfights, How About a Drink?	p. 24
Secular Theories Condemning Gambling	p. 26
If There Are No Circuses for the Masses, How to Calm Them Down?	p. 28
How Did the United States Come to Prohibit Drinking?	p. 29
The 1906 Act and Since: Familiar Patterns	p. 31
The Change in English Attitudes and Laws	p. 32
Law and Gambling in the New World	p. 33
Conclusion	p. 35
3 Are You Rich? Risk-Taking and Gambling, or the Leapfrogging Instinct	p. 38
If You Are Not Rich, What Do You Do?	p. 40
Facts	p. 44
The Attraction of Big Prizes	p. 44
The Poor and Those Falling Behind	p. 45
Reversal to Fortune	p. 49
Statistical Analysis: Correcting Its Pitfalls	p. 52
Are Gamblers Reckless or Criminals?	p. 54
What Do Winners Do with the Money?	p. 59
Compulsive Gamblers: An Aside	p. 62
Conclusion	p. 66
4 Betting on Futures and Creating Prices	p. 67
Which shows how conventional wisdom about futures markets was often wrong, and the relationship between these markets and gambling and insurance.
False Ideas: Bad Laws, Bad Policies	p. 68
Back to Basics	p. 70
The Tulipmania That Never Was: Part1	p. 74
More on Insurance and Gambling	p. 76
Legal Confusions and Political Debates: Property Rights and Prices	p. 77
Stabilizing and Destabilizing Speculations	p. 81
Telecommunications and Speculation; or, How to Outlaw the Competition	p. 84
Gamblers and Speculators: More Confusions	p. 86
5 Gambling as Banking: Poker, Junk Bonds, and Central Banks	p. 90
Which shows how gambling was banking and how it is linked to the development of clearinghouses, central banking, and creating wealth in a country.
Gambling Is Not a Zero-Sum game	p. 91
Preventing Financial Intermediation by Law: Protecting Noblemen	p. 98
The Volatile Road to Democratized Captial	p. 100
Volatile Ranks and Taking Chances	p. 101
When the Rich and Poor Intermingle, Lessons for the John Laws	p. 102
The Tulipmania That Never Was: Part2	p. 105
Gambling in Venice	p. 108
Banking on Gamblers	p. 111
From Poker Banks to Clearinghouses	p. 116
Poker Banks and Junk Bonds	p. 118
From Banking on Gambling to Gambling on Central Banking	p. 121
6 Lottery Is a Taxation, and Heav'n Be Prais'd, It Is Easily Rais'd	p. 124
Lotteries and Public Finance	p. 131
Lottery Finance by English Governments	p. 133
Lottery Finance in the New World: Origins of Investment Banking	p. 138
From Lotteries to Banking	p. 140
Toward Prohibition	p. 141
Lotteries as Public Finance in Canada	p. 142
The Rebirth of Lotteries	p. 142
If Not Lotteries, Then Sweepstakes	p. 145
Gambling Today in America	p. 147
7 Politics and Prohibitions; or, What's a Good Tax Anyway?	p. 150
Lotteries as a Regressive Tax: An Irrelevant Argument	p. 151
Theories of Taxation without Foundations	p. 153
How Do Governments Spend the Money?	p. 155
Gamblers at Opera's Gates	p. 157
Legalizing Gambling to Bring Prosperity	p. 161
What Is a Good Tax; or, Who Guards the Guardians?	p. 166
Impacts of Prohibition	p. 168
Prohibitions in the United States and Elsewhere	p. 169
Other Impacts of Prohibition in the United States	p. 172
Taxing Foreigners	p. 173
Prohibitions in the United Kingdom and the United States	p. 175
Why Do American Sports Leagues Oppose Sports Betting and Online Gambling?	p. 179
Sports Betting Update: The Donaghy File	p. 182
Online Gambling	p. 186
Problems and Solutions	p. 189
8 How Gamblers and Risk-Takers Correct the Future	p. 194
Betting on Ideas, and Matters of Trial and Error	p. 198
How Did Some Societies Come to Tolerate Risk-Takers and Gamblers?	p. 200
Capital Markets and Models of Society	p. 204
Natural Resources Are No Mothers of Invention	p. 206
Creating Wealth and the Movement of the Vital Few	p. 208
Happiness and Luck	p. 210
Appendix 1 Gambling and Risk-Taking: The Leapfrogging Instinct	p. 213
Introduction	p. 213
Gambling and the Leapfrogging Instinct	p. 214
Why Do Lotteries Have Multiple Prizes?	p. 218
Insurance: Preventing the Falling Behind	p. 220
Stopping Rules: How Much to Gamble? How Much to Insure?	p. 222
Risk-Taking and Uncertainty: Leaping into the Unknown	p. 223
Doing Their Best: What "Maximization" Means	p. 231
Risk, Uncertainty, and Information	p. 232
Wealth, Risk, and Uncertainty	p. 233
Stability, Redistribution, and Progressive Taxation of Wealth	p. 235
Comparisons with Other Approaches	p. 239
Conclusion	p. 249
Appendix 2 Human Nature and the Civilizing Process	p. 251
Which briefly compares various views of human nature.
Bets on Ideas	p. 251
Creativity, Uncertainty, and Risk-Taking	p. 253
Appendix 3 A Statistical Profile of Gamblers	p. 257
Quebee Data	p. 257
Canadian Data	p. 260
How to Correct for Undeclared Lottery Expenditures	p. 266
Results	p. 268
Conclusion	p. 271
Notes	p. 273
Bibliography	p. 309
Name Index	p. 325
Subject Index	p. 332

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